Heading into the presidential election earlier this month, the renowned pollster J. Ann Selzer shocked many when her pre-election survey showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading in Iowa. This was huge for Democrats, as Selzer’s election polling had been widely regarded as a “gold-standard” poll.
Selzer & Company’s final poll had Harris leading Donald Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters in Iowa. Selzer was then humiliated when Trump trounced Harris in Iowa, defeating her 56% to 42.7%.
On Sunday, Selzer announced that she will be stepping away from polling after this embarrassment. Indeed, this is not the note that she was hoping to end her polling career on.
From Daily Wire:
“Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities,” Selzer wrote in a guest column published on Sunday by the Des Moines Register.“Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course,” she added. “It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite.”
In her guest column on Sunday, Selzer wrote that her “history of accuracy” might have “made the outlier position too comfortable.” She said that polling “is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist. So, I’m humbled, yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings.”
Hours after Selzer made this announcement, Trump called for her to be investigated.
“She knew exactly what she was doing,” Trump said. He went on to describe the poll as “possible ELECTION FRAUD by Ann Selzer and the now discredited ‘newspaper’ for which she works.”
“An investigation is fully called for!” Trump said.
Trump Mocks Selzer
Immediately after he won Iowa, Trump issued a statement mocking Selzer.
“After four years under Kamala Harris, Hawkeye state voters are eager for President Trump to fix what Kamala Harris broke,” he said. “Starting on Day 1, President Trump and Vice President JD Vance will help to ease costs, secure the border, and protect Social Security for retirees like Ann Selzer.”
On the night of the election, Selzer pledged to review the data of her “outlier” poll that had Harris in the lead.
“I’ll continue to be puzzled by the biggest miss of my career,” Selzer later said in a 19-page review of the poll.
In the end, Selzer claims to not understand why her poll ended up being so incredibly wrong.
“It comes down to what theories we have that we can test with data, and theories that are speculative where no data exists for a credible test, at least for now,” she admitted. “Nothing is more rewarding than figuring out what went wrong.”
It seems to be for the best that Selzer is giving up polling. Indeed, it would be impossible for anyone to take her polling seriously in future elections after this debacle.
Thank goodness Selzer was as wrong about this election as she was, because America needs Trump more than ever. We applaud the good people of Iowa for standing by Trump!
Sources: Daily Wire, USA Today, Selzer’s Review
